Possible het's

[Emilio]

I've asked around and I can't get a definitive answer from anybody. Since I have two poss het's what are my odd's of one being het? I remember some one saying if you had three the odd's were 87.5% but i don't know if that's right either? My worst subject in school was math but I gave it a try and came up with 59.1% am I right? One more thing they are 50's.

[tmlowe5704]

I've asked around and I can't get a definitive answer from anybody. Since I have two poss het's what are my odd's of one being het? I remember some one saying if you had three the odd's were 87.5% but i don't know if that's right either? My worst subject in school was math but I gave it a try and came up with 59.1% am I right? One more thing they are 50's.

If they are both 50% poss hets, what are you asking?

[Emilio]

I know that what I'm asking is what are the odd's together that one will be a het?

[Nate]

think of it as 4 eggs/clutch..that helps me out

http://www.ballpythons.ca/what_get/recessive.html also helps me out a ton

The numbers you are saying, i've never heard of...all i know of is 100%, 66%, 50%, 25%

If you've got 2 possible hets, that means each one came from a clutch where some were normals and some are hets.

If i give you 2 snakes that look normal, but one carries a morph gene, then you have a 50/50 chance (or 50%) chance of choosing the right het.

You don't acctually add/multiply/divide the numbers to figure out what your odds are.

[Spaniard]

I think you're making it more than it is, 50% hets have a 50% chance of being Het, don't think there is anymore math you can do.

[elevatethis]

From what I remember from taking statistics, you could think of possible hets as flipping a coin. So, a simple formula applies like this:

Nh / N

with N = number of trials (in your case 2) and Nh being the number of times you have a het (or "land heads). The law of large numbers says that the more trials you run, the closer that ratio equals 50%.

[aaajohnson]

Brad is right for the chance of say ..... seeing 1 head out of 2 coins, however there is the possibility of seeing 2 heads. You have two independent coins, so the "odds" of coin flips work like this.

Lets say you are intersested in the "odds" of seeing heads while flipping 2 coins. The possibilities and odds of different combinations are:

2 Heads 25% (1:3)
1 Head 1 Tail 50% (1:1)
2 Tails 25% (1:3)

If you are interested in the "odds" of seeing AT LEAST 1 Head, they are 75% or 3:1 (50% of seeing 1 plus 25% of seeing 2).

This is a pure statistical look at it .... remember you are dealing with nature .

Neil

[hoo-t]

Emilio,

I think I understand what you are asking. If you have 2 50% hets, each one has a 50% probability of being a het. But the probability that you have at least one het is calculated differently, though I'm not sure off the top of my head how to do it.

Think of it this way. If you have a single 50% het, the probability that you have a het is 50%. What if you have TEN 50% hets? What is the probability that you have at least one het? Off the top of my head, I think if you have 10 50% hets, the probability that you have at least FIVE hets would be 50%. The probability that ALL TEN are hets is much, much lower, and the probability that AT LEAST ONE is a het is much, much higher. This is why sometimes a person will try to buy an entire clutch of possible hets; to increase their odds of getting at least one het.

Considering the previous paragraph, if you have TWO 50% hets, what is the probability that AT LEAST ONE is a het?

Steve

[Emilio]

Neil this is exactly what I was looking for. Brad it's one of those question's many of my co-worker's did not want to burn brain cell's on.Thank you

[aaajohnson]

Not a problem. The rule that Brad used is correct when looking at how many would be het out of a group. Meaning if you had 10 50% hets, you woul d probably get 4, 5, or 6. But if you had 100 50 % hets your range would probably be between 45 and 55. So .45 and .55 are closer to .5 than .4 and .6 are ....... then you could get into the probabilities of ranges, like a 95% chance that the range would be 47 - 53, etc ... I hate statistics, but I had it two of my last three semsters ... one class left and I will have my degree (whew ... before I turn 40)

Neil